No ambush. No excuses. This Test will be decided on merit

No sooner had the plane carrying the New Zealand squad from Heathrow taxied to its arrivals slot at Dublin Airport the shadow boxing kicked off.

No ambush. No excuses. This Test will be decided on merit

No sooner had the plane carrying the New Zealand squad from Heathrow taxied to its arrivals slot at Dublin Airport the shadow boxing kicked off.

Head coach Steve Hansen, a man well versed in the art of delivering pre-match verbals — having gone toe to toe with the likes of the mouthy Eddie Jones, Michael Cheika and Warren Gatland over the years — was setting the agenda for Saturday night’s much anticipated clash between the nations ranked at one and two in the game.

For whatever reason Hansen, the most experienced and successful New Zealand coach of all time with a win ratio of 89.36% from 94 Tests in charge, appeared fixated about Conor Murray and the prospect of a surprise return to the Irish side for the game.

Three weeks ago, in the midst of preparing the All Blacks for their final Bledisloe Cup tie of the season against Australia in Japan, he was once again found referencing Murray and his chances of playing in a game that, at that point, was three Tests down the track with the Wallabies, Japan, and England still to be negotiated.

I’m not quite sure I’ve seen a New Zealand coach more fixated on an Irish player so far out from a game. It’s almost as if he wanted his side mentally prepared for the fact the Munster man, who played such an influential role for the Lions in their drawn series in 2017, would start. Then in the event of Murray not being cleared to play, which was confirmed by the IRFU on Monday, that would feel like a serious gain for his side.

It is a measure of Murray’s standing that he commanded such attention from the game’s leading side but, in all honesty, I never expected him to play in this game, not least when it was reported he was in Dubai last week. There was no way he’d undertake that trip if he had a chance of playing this weekend.

Given he hadn’t played since the final Test against Australia in Sydney on June 23, I think it would be asking too much, even for a player of Murray’s quality, to pitch him straight into a game of this magnitude.

Of far more importance, given that the most salient message from the last World Cup was that you must be prepared to lose key players to injury before the biggest games, having to negotiate Tests of this quality short-handed is an exercise worth experiencing.

While we bemoan the loss of Murray, Robbie Henshaw and Sean O’Brien, New Zealand can equally point to the injury absence of Sonny Bill Williams, Sam Cane, and Joe Moody, three World Cup winners. Sadly, injuries have become an integral part of every squad and the teams that cope best with their absentees are normally the ones who prevail.

From Ireland’s perspective, it’s worth remembering too that O’Brien missed the entire Six Nations championship and the Test series win over Australia last season and that Henshaw was an injury absentee for the last three games of the campaign, including the Grand Slam decider against England when Saturday’s anticipated combination of Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose were superb.

In any event, even without that injured trio, Ireland have the capacity to beat New Zealand at this point in time if they can address the uncharacteristic deficiencies that marred their win last Saturday.

New Zealand are an outstanding side, but I wouldn’t rate them in the same class as the all-conquering team that retained the William Webb Ellis trophy in Twickenham three years ago.

That would be difficult given that, when Nigel Owens blew the final whistle in their 34-17 defeat of Australia, he automatically signaled the end to the international careers of Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Kevin Mealamu, Tony Woodcock and two-time World Cup winning captain Richie McCaw.

Between them they had amassed a grand total of 707 caps. You simply cannot replace that level of class and experience overnight. While they have retained both the Bledisloe Cup and Rugby Championship every season since that World Cup, they have looked more vulnerable over the past 18 months than at any time in recent years.

The depth of their squad is being tested like never before, not only by the retirement of that dual World Cup winning sextet, but also by the continual drain of players to Europe who would still be in contention for squad places such as Aaron Cruden, Lima Sopoaga, Malakai Fekitoa, Julian Savea and Charlie Faumuina to name but a few.

The fact they felt compelled to select an overseas player in the Japanese-based Matt Todd — admittedly he is returning to the Crusaders fold next season — to cover the absence of Cane offers further evidence of their player drain.

Many of the players who shared the drawn series with the Lions in New Zealand last summer brought a vision and clarity back to their respective national coaches and squads of what is required to beat the All Blacks having won and drawn two of their three Tests.

Eddie Jones made no secret of the fact he tapped into that knowledge immediately when his players returned, having them write down what they had learned and what tactical approach worked best for the Lions.

He revisited those notes when preparing his game-plan for last weekend’s encounter and but for a very tight call from the TMO in disallowing a try by Sam Underhill with just five minutes remaining, England would have won.

The fact they didn’t after racing into a 15-point lead says everything you need to know about the mentality of this All Black squad. They may be running on empty but they always play to the death. To beat them you have to play for the full 80 minutes. It’s no coincidence that in recent times they twice overturned leads of 17 points, against Australia in Dunedin last season and against South Africa in Pretoria last month, to win.

We need no reminding either of how they miraculously overturned a 19-point lead against us at the Aviva Stadium in 2013. The worrying thing from Hansen’s perspective is that they are finding themselves in that position far too often.

It was inevitable they would be caught at some stage which is exactly what transpired when the Springboks hung on to close out a spectacular 34-36 win in Wellington last September. That defeat offered hope for everyone.

Given Ireland’s lofty status in the world rankings and with the World Cup coming into focus, I suspect New Zealand will seek to lay down a marker in this game. With due respects to Italy, who New Zealand meet in their final game of a punishing season on Saturday week, Hansen will send out his strongest available team with a view to reminding Ireland just how difficult they are to beat.

New Zealand may be vulnerable right now but the question looming over Ireland heading into this game is whether or not they are primed and ready to exploit that potential vulnerability.

What we can say with reasonable certainty is that the unforced errors, the lack of precision and poor execution that marked much of last Saturday’s performance will have been addressed by Schmidt during the week.

A fear of being exposed tends to focus the mind when playing New Zealand. This Test will be decided on merit. There will be no ambush and no

excuses.

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