A potential deal that will create an EU border in the Irish Sea is on the brink of being achieved tonight after marathon talks designed to push the plan forward for ratification at the 11th hour tomorrow.
Several high-level sources in Ireland, Britain and the EU have revealed the sudden surge of optimism to the Irish Examiner tonight, saying while a deal cannot be guaranteed, significant progress has occurred in behind the scenes talks between UK and EU teams.
Despite Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and British prime minister Boris Johnson sparking hopes of a deal after they said in a rare joint statement after their meeting last Thursday that a “pathway” to a deal could be found, those hopes dwindled in recent days.
This was because of EU concerns the plan to allow Northern Ireland to leave as part of the UK but continue to implement EU customs rules was too complex to easily write into a written legal text.
The concerns were outlined by Tánaiste Simon Coveney, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and a number of other senior EU representatives on Monday and this morning, with repeated talk of an emergency EU summit next week as a deal may be unable to be achieved by Thursday's summit.
However, in a significant development this evening, all three sides said major steps forward are being made, with the likelihood of a deal emerging tomorrow morning after talks which were expected to last until the early hours.
The Irish Examiner understands the potential deal is based on allowing the EU border to be specifically in the Irish Sea, which could cut Northern Ireland politically adrift from the rest of the UK.
It is understood Mr Barnier discussed this possibility during a tele-conference with lawmakers, specifically saying this will avoid a “visible” land border between the Republic and Northern Ireland.
One official aware of the discussion said tonight the “talks are active and ongoing and a positive result is still possible”, adding that negotiators were working on a political declaration of intent, not yet a legally binding document.
It is expected this political declaration could be signed off on in the early hours of this morning after marathon talks which also saw EU and UK teams meet until midnight on Monday and work through today from 8.30am.
Speaking to the Irish Examiner tonight, an Irish source said “it’s looking like a late one in Brussels” while an EU source confirmed talks are progressing quickly.
A UK source, who had earlier in the day downplayed “excitable” reporting of a potential deal, added: “As part of the talks process, there is of course back and forth, and new texts have been shared by both sides, that’s what the negotiation is.”
If a deal is to be put to EU leaders at the summit Thursday and Friday, it will first have to be sent to the College of EU Commissioners this morning before it is recommended by Mr Barnier to EU member state ambassadors at a meeting in Brussels this afternoon.
If only a political declaration is put forward, it will leave open the possibility of an emergency EU summit still being called for next week to finalise plans.
Mr Barnier had earlier today set a midnight deadline for the UK and the EU to agree on a way forward which would address the Northern Ireland issue and the EU’s concerns over the customs union situation.
Mr Barnier said at the time he will announce whether discussions have proven successful tomorrow in a bid to give leaders including Mr Varadkar and Mr Johnson time to examine it before the EU summit